Many US colleges and universities could be forced to shut down if they are unable to maintain enrolment of immigrants and international students, according to a report released by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).

The report finds that international students, immigrants, and the US-born children of immigrants make up a significant share of the higher education population. A sharp decline in their numbers could reduce the undergraduate student population by almost five million and the graduate student population by at least 1.1 million between 2022 and 2037.

Falling enrolment and financial stress across institutions

The study, authored by Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, warns of a “looming demographic cliff” in the US due to the drop in birth rates after 2007. As a result, the number of traditional college-age US-born students is expected to begin falling from 2025.

According to the analysis, the total enrolment at US higher education institutions peaked in the 2010-11 academic year and has since declined. The share of young adults enrolled in college is also dropping. Zavodny stated that “losing up to one-third of undergraduate enrolment and almost two-fifths of graduate enrolment would be catastrophic,” as reported by Forbes.

Smaller and regional institutions face the highest risk

The NFAP report indicates that smaller regional universities and private liberal arts colleges, particularly those in rural areas, are at the greatest risk of closure. These institutions are likely to struggle to attract students as more applicants aim for better-resourced and more prominent universities.

“Regional universities will find it particularly hard to recruit international graduate students if those students can attend larger universities that have more resources for research and lead to better job opportunities,” Zavodny said, as quoted by Forbes.

Policy changes and immigration restrictions intensify challenges

The Trump administration has implemented restrictive immigration policies affecting international students. This includes compelling Columbia University to reduce its “dependence” on international students and ordering mass deportations, as reported by Forbes.

In 2025, the US State Department ordered international students to leave the country for minor infractions, without offering the chance to respond. Lawsuits later blocked these deportations. According to Forbes, NAFSA: Association of International Educators anticipates a 30% to 40% decline in new international student enrolment in autumn 2025 due to travel bans, visa interview suspensions, and limited availability.

Impact on local economies and student populations

Many US universities are already facing budget shortfalls. The Washington Times reported that in 2023, public colleges experienced the steepest annual tuition revenue decline since 1980. West Virginia University, for instance, closed 28 academic programmes and eliminated 143 faculty positions.

The NFAP study highlights that about one in four undergraduates and one in seven graduate students in the US are US-born children of immigrants. Zavodny stated that universities rely not only on international students but also on immigrants and their families remaining in the country, as quoted by Forbes.

Work opportunities and future pathways restricted

The report underscores the importance of programmes like Optional Practical Training (OPT) and STEM OPT that allow international students to gain work experience after graduation. However, the Trump administration plans to eliminate OPT and tighten rules for H-1B visa eligibility. New regulations would also require international students to apply for extensions beyond fixed admission periods.

Zavodny concluded that policies restricting international student access could significantly affect university enrolment, reduce employment opportunities in university towns, and limit the supply of college-educated workers in the US, as reported by Forbes.