Exasperating. Depressing. Predictable.

That’s how experts describe the latest results from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, also known as the “nation’s report card.”

Considered a highly accurate window into student performance, the assessment has become a periodic reminder of declining academic success among students in the U.S., with the last several rounds accentuating yearslong slumps in learning. In January, for instance, the previous round of NAEP results revealed the biggest share of eighth graders who did not meet basic reading proficiency in the assessment’s history.

Now, the latest results, released Tuesday after a delay, showed continued decline.

Eighth graders saw the first fall in average science scores since the assessment took its current form in 2009. The assessment looked at physical science, life science, and earth and space sciences. Thirty-eight percent of students performed below basic, a level which means these students probably don’t know that plants need sunlight to grow and reproduce, according to NAEP. In contrast, only 31 percent of students performed at proficient levels.

Twelfth graders saw a three-point fall in average math and reading scores, compared to results from 2019. The exam also shows that the achievement gap between high- and low-scoring students is swelling, a major point of concern. In math, the gap is wider than it’s ever been.

But most eye-grabbing is the fact that 45 percent of high school seniors — the highest percentage ever recorded — scored below basic in math, meaning they cannot determine probabilities of simple events from two-way tables and verbal descriptions. In contrast, just 22 percent scored at-or-above proficient. In reading, 32 percent scored below basic, and 35 percent met the proficient threshold. Twelfth grade students also reported high rates of absenteeism.

Tucked inside the report was the finding that parents’ education did not appear to hold much sway on student performance in the lower quartiles, which will bear further unpacking, according to one expert’s first analysis.

But the scores contained other glum trends, as well.

For example, the gap in outcomes in the sciences between male and female students, which had narrowed in recent years, bounced back. (A similar gap in math reappeared since the pandemic, pushing educators to get creative in trying to nourish girls’ interest in the subject.)

But with teacher shortages and schools facing enrollment declines and budget shortfalls, experts say it’s not surprising that students still struggle. Those who watch education closely describe themselves as tired, exasperated and even depressed from watching a decade’s worth of student performance declines. They also express doubt that political posturing around the scores will translate into improvements.

Political Posturing

Despite a sterling reputation, the assessment found itself snagged by federal upheaval.

NAEP is a congressionally mandated program run by the National Center for Education Statistics. Since the last round of results was released, back in January, the center and the broader U.S. Department of Education have dealt with shredded contracts, mass firings and the sudden dismissal of Peggy Carr, who’d helped burnish the assessment’s reputation and statistical rigor and whose firing delayed the release of these latest results.

The country’s education system overall has also undergone significant changes, including the introduction of a national school choice plan, meant to shift public dollars to private schools, through the Republican budget.

Declining scores provide the Trump administration a potential cudgel for its dismantling of public education, and some have seized upon it: Congressman Tim Walberg, a Republican from Michigan and chairman of the House Education and Workforce Committee, blamed the latest scores on the Democrats’ “student-last policies,” in a prepared statement.

“The lesson is clear,” argued Education Secretary Linda McMahon in her comment on the latest scores. “Success isn’t about how much money we spend, but who controls the money and where that money is invested,” she wrote, stressing that students need an approach that returns control education to the states.

Some observers chortle at the “back to the states” analysis. After all, state and local governments already control most of the policies and spending related to public schools.

Regardless, experts suggest that just pushing more of education governance to the states will not solve the underlying causes of declining student performance. Declines in scores predate the pandemic, they also say.

No Real Progress

States have always been in charge of setting their own standards and assessments, says Latrenda Knighten, president of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. These national assessments are useful for comparing student performance across states, she adds.

Ultimately, in her view, the latest scores reveal the need for efforts to boost high-quality instruction and continuous professional learning for teachers to address systemic issues, a sentiment reflected in her organization’s public comment on the assessment. The results shine a spotlight on the need for greater opportunity in high school mathematics across the country, Knighten told EdSurge. She believes that means devoting more money for teacher training.

Some think that the causes of this academic slide are relatively well understood.

Teacher quality has declined, as teacher prep programs struggle to supply qualified teachers, particularly in math, and schools struggle to fill vacancies, says Robin Lake, director of the Center on Reinventing Public Education. She argues there has also been a decline in the desire to push schools to be accountable for poor student performance, and an inability to adapt.

There’s also confusion about which curriculum is best for students, she says. For instance, fierce debates continue to split teachers around “tracking,” where students are grouped into math paths based on perceived ability.

But will yet another poor national assessment spur change?

The results continue a decade-long decline in student performance, says Christy Hovanetz, a senior policy fellow for the nonprofit ExcelinEd.

Hovanetz worries that NAEP’s potential lessons will get “lost in the wash.” What’s needed is a balance between turning more authority back over to the states to operate education and a more robust requirement for accountability that allows states to do whatever they want, so long as they demonstrate it’s actually working, she says. That could mean requiring state assessments and accountability systems, she adds.

But right now, a lot of the states aren’t focusing on best practices for science and reading instruction, and they aren’t all requiring high-quality instructional materials, she says.

Worse, some are lowering the standards to meet poor student performance, she argues. For instance, Kansas recently altered its state testing. The changes, which involved changing score ranges, have drawn concerns from parents that the state is watering down standards. Hovanetz thinks that’s the case. In making the changes, the state joined Illinois, Wisconsin and Oklahoma in lowering expectations for students on state tests, she argues.

What’s uncontested from all perspectives is that the education system isn’t working.

“It’s truly the definition of insanity: to keep doing what we’re doing and hoping for better results,” says Lake, of the Center on Reinventing Public Education, adding: “We’re not getting them.”